Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
